Friday, October 02, 2026

Counting Down the PLAN's Kilo Class

Photos out of China today show what appears to be the second of the PLAN's two original Project 636 submarines, ordered in 1997, making its way toward the Mawei Shipyard waterfront in Fuzhou as a future museum ship. The first Project 636 already ended up in Guangdong. At this point, both of the original 636s are doing what they were ultimately brought to China for: serving as atmospheric backdrops for military fiction writers and tourists looking for a submarine selfie.
 

 
     "The novel concerns an attempt by the People's Republic of China to obtain a fleet of Kilo-class submarines from Russia, and a series of covert operations carried out by the United States Navy using a Los Angeles-class submarine and Navy SEALs in order to prevent the Chinese from receiving the new boats. The submarines are wanted by China because their ability to operate silently at low speed would make it possible to dominate the Taiwanese Strait even against US Naval opposition. The novel is set in the United States, Russia, China, Taiwan and the Southern Ocean Kerguelen Islands." (Link)

Back to topic:
 

Back in March, I blogged that Kilo 877EKM pennant 365 had already been decommissioned and pointed out how the boat underwent extensive modernization during its service life, including the replacement of Russian subsystems with Chinese communications and electrical equipment, along with installation of the H/ZQQ-5 photoelectric mast. The imported platforms rarely stay purely imported for long in China. If a subsystem can be replaced with a domestic equivalent, eventually it usually is.

That gives us three confirmed retirements from China's total Kilo acquisition:

  • 2 Project 877EKM boats (ordered 1993)
  • 2 Project 636 boats (ordered 1997)
  • 8 Project 636M Improved Kilo boats (ordered 2002)

Three boats down, nine to go. For a class that once represented the cutting edge of the PLAN's underwater force, the retirement process seems to be gathering momentum. The Kilos are slowly losing weight in the fleet structure (Kilo pun, inserted, ha) 

The retirement of these boats highlights something that often gets lost in discussions about hardware. The PLA increasingly evaluates platforms not as individual weapons, but as nodes inside a larger combat system. A submarine, destroyer, aircraft, or missile battery is valuable to the extent that it contributes to an integrated kill chain. The platform itself is becoming secondary.

The modern PLAN fights as a strike package.

A submarine is not simply a submarine. It is a sensor and shooter connected to satellites, maritime patrol aircraft, over-the-horizon radars, unmanned systems, shore commands, and surface combatants. The value of the platform lies in how effectively it can exchange data, receive targeting information, and contribute to the wider network.

This is where many of the older Russian-origin systems begin to run into problems.

Historically, if the PLAN can retrofit a platform with domestic weapons, sensors, communications gear, combat management systems, and C4ISR architecture, it will find a way to keep it around. The PLA has never been known for discarding useful hardware before extracting every last bit of value from it.   There are many blog posts on this very topic here

On paper, the Project 877EKM and 636 are not particularly old submarines. Many navies around the world would happily operate boats of similar vintage after a life-extension refit. The issue may be less about hull age and more about whether the platform remains worth integrating into the PLAN's evolving combat ecosystem.

Simply put, not every platform is worth dragging into the future.

Another data point is China's handling of retired Ming-class submarines. Rather than scrapping them, the PLAN transferred two Type 035G Ming-class boats to Bangladesh and one Type 035B Ming-class boat to Myanmar.

On paper, the Kilo is clearly the superior submarine. But from the perspective of Bangladesh or Myanmar, there is an argument that a former PLAN Ming may actually be easier to operate than a second-hand PLAN Kilo. The Ming sits entirely within a Chinese logistics, training, maintenance, and support ecosystem. The Kilo may be more capable, but it remains fundamentally Russian in origin, with all the associated sustainment challenges that come with it.

Which raises an interesting question: why haven't we seen retired PLAN Kilos exported the way the Ming-class boats were?

One possibility is simply that they are not attractive enough. Another is that they are too complicated to support outside of the PLAN. A third possibility is legal rather than technical.

Most modern arms sales contracts contain end-user and third-party transfer restrictions that prevent a buyer from reselling military equipment without the original supplier's consent. That would mean China could not simply pass a Kilo submarine to another customer without Russian approval.

I went looking for details on the original Sino-Russian Kilo contracts and found nothing publicly available that addresses this question. That doesn't prove such restrictions exist, but it does leave open the possibility that Moscow still has a say regarding any future re-export.

Yes I am aware of INS Sindhuvir → Myanmar 

For now, the evidence suggests that retired PLAN Kilos are heading to museums rather than foreign navies.

And perhaps that tells us something important. The Kilos were purchased as an emergency capability during a period when China's indigenous submarine programs were struggling. They filled the gap, provided valuable operational experience, and likely influenced later Chinese submarine development. But in today's PLAN, platforms increasingly live or die based on how well they fit the network.

A Kilo operating alone is still a capable submarine. A Kilo that cannot fully participate in the PLAN's integrated combat architecture is just another aging platform taking up pier space.

That's a very different calculation, I think.   










 

Wednesday, March 04, 2026

Kilo Class, Boat 365

 

Kilo 877EKM pennant 365 was imported from Russia, arrived in 1995, and decommissioned in 2021. During her service life she saw relatively limited operational use, spending long periods undergoing refits. One major focus of these refits was the integration of Chinese‑made communication and electrical subsystems. A notable example is the installation of the H/ZQQ‑5 photoelectric mast, which replaced the traditional optical periscopes originally fitted on Project 877 boats. Later variants of the improved Kilo class (Project 636.3) are built with modern photoelectric masts from the outset. Bonus photo of PLAN's encrypted communication system

Much like the PLAAF, the PLAN consistently prioritizes domestic subsystems over imported ones, even on foreign‑built platforms.

 






 Encrypted communication system


 

Friday, June 19, 2020

Photos of the day: Sino-ized Sovremenny-class destroyer on patrol.

First pair commissioned into the PLAN China Navy in December 1999 and November 2000.  After a prolonged period of midlife upgrade, they are now back into 3rd Destroyer Flotilla, Eastern Theater Command Navy's orbat.

They ripped out everything - including the kitchen sink - out, leaving only the AK-130 automatic naval gun mounts in place.  Type54A's electronic warfare and radar suites are clearly visible



Before 

After


Monday, March 20, 2023

PLN Decommission of the day: One of China Navy's Kilo Class Submarines To Be Turned Into A Museum Ship

 As part of the Zhanjiang Bay Cultural Tourism Base tourist attraction





 

Azerbaijan: The Most Plausible Next J-10CE Customer?

Recently, there has been no shortage of discussion online about potential export customers for China's J-10CE fighter. Most of the attention tends to gravitate toward Bangladesh, Egypt, or whichever country defense media has attached to the latest rumor cycle.

Azerbaijan rarely tops that list but that may be starting to change.

Recent photos circulating on the Chinese internet have prompted some observers to take a fresh look at Baku's prospects as a future J-10CE customer. To be clear, we're talking about defense-watcher speculation here, not official confirmation. There is currently no known Azerbaijani order for the aircraft.

Still, Azerbaijan arguably stands out as one of the more credible and plausible future customers.

Not because of leaked contracts, anonymous sources, or grainy satellite images. Well, outside of the photos attached at the end of this post.

Rather, it's because the broader pieces of the puzzle have quietly been falling into place for some time.

The biggest clue isn't the J-10CE itself.  It's the JF-17.

Azerbaijan has already committed to the JF-17 Block III, that's confirmed, a fighter jointly developed by Pakistan and China. That decision alone represents a significant shift away from the country's traditional reliance on Soviet and post-Soviet combat aircraft.   Historically, air forces rarely jump headfirst into an entirely new defense ecosystem. More often, they test the waters through an initial acquisition before making larger commitments later on. Once maintenance infrastructure, training pipelines, logistics networks, and institutional relationships are established, follow-on purchases become considerably easier.

Viewed through that lens, the JF-17 may be less of a final destination and more of a gateway drug?

Defense watchers noted another interesting development at Airshow China 2024, where Azerbaijan's Air Force commander was photographed inspecting the J-10CE and meeting with Chinese counterparts. By itself, that means very little. Military delegations inspect aircraft at air shows all the time. If every cockpit visit resulted in a contract, manufacturers would never have to worry about sales.

When viewed alongside Azerbaijan's expanding defense relationship with both Pakistan and China, the optics become harder to dismiss.  The more interesting question, however, is not whether Azerbaijan is interested in the J-10CE.  It's whether Azerbaijan actually needs it.

The JF-17 Block III already provides a capable AESA-equipped multirole fighter armed with modern air-to-air missiles and backed by relatively affordable operating costs. For many air forces, that level of capability would be entirely sufficient.

However, there is also a compelling argument that the JF-17 and J-10CE are complementary rather than competing aircraft.  Pakistan provides the most obvious example:

The Pakistan Air Force operates both types. The JF-17 serves as the workhorse of the fleet, while the J-10CE occupies a higher-end niche focused on air superiority, long-range engagements, and more demanding operational requirements.

If Azerbaijan ultimately seeks a similar force combo, the Pakistani model offers a ready-made blueprint.  The Chinese could up-sell an entire strike package as well as another factor that often gets overlooked is Azerbaijan's broader modernization trajectory.  Unlike some prospective fighter buyers that chase prestige acquisitions (cough cough), Azerbaijan has demonstrated a willingness to spend heavily when military capability aligns with national objectives. The procurement of advanced drones, precision-guided weapons, and more recently the JF-17 suggests a defense establishment that is generally focused on practical capability rather than simply owning the most recognizable aircraft.   The strike package approach vs buying a single prestige wine-drinking-jet (cough cough)

A J-10CE acquisition would also deepen Azerbaijan's already growing defense ties with China and Pakistan. Training, maintenance, weapons integration, and future upgrades become significantly easier when a larger share of the combat fleet comes from the same ecosystem.

Whether that ultimately becomes the deciding factor remains to be seen.  That said, it certainly strengthens the business case. And before the rumor mill goes into overdrive, it is worth emphasizing that none of this means a deal is imminent.

There are still plenty of obstacles. Azerbaijan may conclude that its JF-17 fleet provides all the capability it requires. Budget priorities could shift. Alternative aircraft could emerge. Political considerations could intervene.

All of those possibilities remain on the table.

It's the one quietly building all the prerequisites first.




 

 

Sunday, September 27, 2026

None news of the day: Woody Island

 The role of China's Woody Island is pretty well documented. I've blogged about it several times whenever another piece of the puzzle popped up. Still, it's always nice to get official confirmation that both the PLAAF and PLAN are using the island for joint-service drills. In this case, the featured participant appears to be a KJ-500/KJ-500H AEW&C aircraft to Huangyan Island. The PLA operating AEW&C out of Woody Island is about as surprising as finding water in the South China Sea, but official acknowledgments are always useful.

The report also notes that WZ-7 Soaring Dragon  were dispatched from "an inland military airport"to participate in the exercise. 





 

Woody Island sits roughly 300 to 330 km (185 to 205 miles) from Sanya Phoenix International Airport on Hainan. That means aircraft operating from the island effectively gain about 600 km of round-trip reach compared to launching directly from Hainan. For platforms that spend their lives worrying about station time, fuel burn, and coverage, that's not an insignificant advantage.

Of course, I'm sure the only thing on the Central Military Commission's mind when they expanded the island was helping aircrews save on fuel costs. With gasoline prices being what they are these days, who could blame them?

So yes, the PLA gets a forward operating location that extends its reach deeper into the South China Sea. No news there.

The PLA is also flying the WZ-7 Soaring Dragon. Again, no news there.

The real news would be if they weren't doing those things.

 






 

Thursday, July 30, 2026

Routine of the PLAAF: JL‑10s Now Doing the South China Sea Shuffle

It's now confirmed, see the report below,  the PLAAF has begun stationing JL‑10 twin‑seat advanced trainers to patrol around Huangyan Island (黄岩岛), better known as Scarborough Shoal.


The PLAAF has a long habit of “pit‑stopping” on those man‑enhanced islands operated by the PLAN,  pun absolutely intended this time. But actually basing JL‑10s there says something about how the PLAAF is thinking about cost, tempo, and the realities of island aviation.

Modern fighters hate salt. Island wind quietly attacks almost every material and system a high‑performance aircraft relies on:

  • Corrosion accelerates
  • Sensors degrade
  • Precision components age faster
  • Maintenance hours spike
  • Reliability drops


Navalized aircraft can tolerate this environment; land‑based fighters like the J‑16 absolutely can for a time, but they pay for it in man‑hours and parts. A JL‑10 is simply cheaper to operate in a place where the sand itself is trying to eat your airplane.


The second reason: escort speed:

The PLAAF doesn’t need a Mach‑2 interceptor to “escort” Philippine Air Force aircraft out of the area. They need something that can loiter, fly slow, and stay predictable. A JL‑10 is perfectly adequate for that kind of presence mission and far less wasteful than burning cycles on a J‑16.
 

A lesson learned the hard way.
Think back to the early 2001 around Hainan Island. Deploying twin‑engine, high‑speed interceptors for EP‑3 escort duty was… not optimal. Wrong aircraft for the mission profile, wrong aircraft for the environment.
 

The JL‑10 avoids both problems:

  • Lower maintenance burden 
  • Lower escort speed
  • Lower operating cost
  • Lower corrosion exposure


For this specific deployment, it’s simply the better bird. 







 

Monday, May 09, 2016

H-6K to Fiery Cross Reef

According to this CCTV capture, the PLA is sending more than a task force of 6 surface ships to the South China Sea -- an overflight of H-6K is also being reported.  This naval drill is now quickly becoming a three-dimension affair with surface ships, subs and air cover in position. 













Monday, August 24, 2015

Photos of the day: Fuel stop at Yong Xing Island, South China Sea

With three external fuel tanks, it seems that the JH-7 fighter-bomber has the range to reach out to Yong Xing Island.

Just in case you're wondering, they are from the 32nd Regiment, 11th PLAAF Air Division, Shenyang Military Region.   Shanyang Military is bordered by North Korea.  Perhaps they are vacation, wanting some sun and sand!








Saturday, January 03, 2015

Photos of the day: Yong Xing Island, South China Sea, Vacation spot.

Wifi included.























Wednesday, December 02, 2009

Photos of the Yong Xing Island

YongXiang island 永兴岛 (woody island) is the main island of the Xisha islands (Paracel islands) in the South China Sea. It is approximately 2.1 square kilometers in size.

It is home to the PLAN Marine Xisha Island Garrison (battalion size) and a civilian emergency rescue center. It has an artificial harbor that can accommodate ships up to 5000 tone and a modern 2350 meters runway that can support a Boeing 737 class transport.

It has no fresh water source, so a water slide park is out of the question.